CIGS and HCPV to Become the Game Changers in the Future Solar PV Market

Innova Research published a new report, in which alternative solar technologies are analyzed and ranked based on a matrix analysis of key technologies indexes, patent publications, and M&A activities. The result shows that the winners among the emerging PV technologies are CIGS and HCPV, both are benefiting from their outstanding cost reduction potentials and the feasibility for massive adoptions.

While the conventional x-Si solar technologies is approaching its theoretical conversion limit, alternative photovoltaic (PV) technologies are setting the bar higher and higher, gradually changing the landscape of the global solar market. In the latest report, “Chasing the Sun: Searching for Game Changers in Disruptive Photovoltaic Technologies”, Innova research has estimated that the share of solar PV production capacity by conventional x-Si solar technology accounts for 84.7% of the total global capacity in 2014. This share is forecasted to further decline to 78.4% by 2019 encroached by the emerging PV technologies.   Innova Research believes that CIGS and CPV have the greatest potentials and will become the game changers in the global solar market.

In the report, alternative solar technologies are analyzed and ranked based on a matrix analysis of key technologies indexes, patent publications, and M&A activities. Innova research classified the emerging solar technologies into three major categories, namely thin-film PV, including Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), TF-Si; concentrated PV (CPV), including LCPV and HCPV, and the 3rd generation solar technologies, including organic PV (OPV), dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC), copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS), quantum dot (QD), and perovskite solar cells. As Nancy Wu, Research Director of Innova Research and the lead author of the report summarized, 

·      CIGS leads the thin-film PV expansion with production capacity growth from an estimated 1.8 GW in 2010 to a forecasted 5.6 GW in 2019, followed by Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), from 2.5 GW to 3.5 GW for the same period. Meanwhile, the production capacities for CPV modules are forecast to grow from 1.5 GW in 2010 to 2.4 GW in 2019, with over 60% of the capacity contributed by high-concentrating PV in 2019.

Thin-film and CPV technologies are poised for large commercialization in the near future while the 3rd generation PV technologies will still have a long way to go towards that goal. We believe that the winners among the emerging PV technologies will be copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) and high-concentrating PV (HCPV), both are benefiting from their outstanding cost reduction potentials and the feasibility for massive adoptions.

Nancy Wu, Research Director

·      Thin-film accounts for the largest number of M&A activities in the alternative solar technology field, followed by CPV, with 24 and 14 deals closed, respectively, from 2010 to 2014. The total $ values of the M&A deals in the thin-film and CPV fields were estimated at $1.08 billion and $247 million, respectively, in the same period.

·      US leads the IP publications in CdTe, CIGS, and CZTS, while Asian countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea are catching up in DSSC, QD, and perovskite PV technologies in the past five years. The increasing research focuses on the alternative solar PV technologies, particularly on their efficiency enhancement and the stability of the systems, will greatly drive up their commercialization in the next few years.

The report, “Chasing the Sun: Searching for Game Changers in Disruptive Photovoltaic Technologies,” is part of the Innova Research Renewable Energy and Environmental Technologies service.

About Innova Research

Innova Research is a market research and consulting firm focusing on emerging technologies. With the combination of both technology and market research experts, we offer world-class market and technology intelligences.  Driven by primary research, Innova Research’s market intelligence reports and consulting service help our clients to make right strategic and investment decisions in the fast-changing technology world. Visit www.innovaresearchinc.comfor more information.